Milliken et al reported models for predicting morbidity following partial hepatectomy for a hepatic tumor. One model is based on having the best fit. The authors are from the Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust.
Patient selection: partial hepatectomy for hepatic tumor
Outcome: 90-day major complications (Clavien-Dindo Grade III or greater including death)
Parameters:
(1) extent of surgical resection
(2) serum albumin in g/L
(3) hematocrit as a decimal fraction
(4) ASA performance status
(5) sex
(6) interaction term for extent of surgery and albumin
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficient
surgical resection
partial lobectomy
0
total left lobectomy
7.1878
total right lobectomy
10.2115
tri-segmentectomy
10.2115
serum albumin
-0.0424 * (albumin)
ASA PS
I
0
II
0.8001
III
1.4015
IV
NA
hematocrit
15.3792
sex
female
0
male
-0.7667
interaction term
partial lobectomy and albumin
0
total left lobectomy and albumin
-0.1467 * (albumin)
total right lobectomy and albumin
-0.2181 * (albumin)
trisegmentectomy and albumin
-0.2181 * (albumin)
value of X =
= SUM(beta-coefficients for the parameters) - 7.0277
probability of complications =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.69.
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