Models of McClelland et al for 10-Year Risk of Coronary Heart Disease from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA): Model Using Traditional Clinical Risk Factors
McClelland et al reported models for predicting 10-year risk of coronary heart disease in adults. One model using traditional risk factors and a second included coronary artery calcifications. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and Germany.
Patient selection: age from 45 to 84 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) race/ethnicity
(4) diabetes
(5) current smoker (past 30 days)
(6) serum total cholesterol in mg/dL
(7) serum HDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(8) lipid lowering medications
(9) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(10) anti-hypertensive medications
(11) family history of heart attack
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.0455 * (age)
sex
female
0
male
0.7496
race/ethnicity
non-Hispanic White
0
Chinese American
-0.5055
African American
-0.2111
Hispanic
-0.19
diabetes
no
0
yes
0.5168
current smoker
no
0
yes
0.4732
serum total cholesterol
0.0053 * (cholesterol)
HDL cholesterol
-0.014 * (HDLC)
lipid lowering meds
no
0
yes
0.2473
systolic blood pressure
0.0085 * (SBP)
anti-hypertensive meds
no
0
yes
0.3381
family history
no
0
yes
0.4522
baseline survival at 10 years: 0.99963
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
10-year risk of a coronary heart event =
= 1 - 0.99963^EXP(X)
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