McClelland et al reported models for predicting 10-year risk of coronary heart disease in adults. One model using traditional risk factors and a second included coronary artery calcifications. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United States and Germany.
Patient selection: age from 45 to 84 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) race/ethnicity
(4) diabetes
(5) current smoker (past 30 days)
(6) serum total cholesterol in mg/dL
(7) serum HDL cholesterol in mg/dL
(8) lipid lowering medications
(9) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(10) anti-hypertensive medications
(11) family history of heart attack
(12) coronary artery calcium (CAC) by the Agatston scoring method, from 0 to > 400
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
age in years
|
|
0.0172 * (age)
|
|
sex
|
female
|
0
|
|
|
male
|
0.4079
|
|
race/ethnicity
|
non-Hispanic White
|
0
|
|
|
Chinese American
|
-0.3475
|
|
|
African American
|
0.353
|
|
|
Hispanic
|
-0.0222
|
|
diabetes
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.3892
|
|
current smoker
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.3717
|
|
serum total cholesterol
|
|
0.0043 * (cholesterol)
|
|
HDL cholesterol
|
|
-0.0114 * (HDLC)
|
|
lipid lowering meds
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.1206
|
|
systolic blood pressure
|
|
0.0066 * (SBP)
|
|
anti-hypertensive meds
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.2278
|
|
family history
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.3239
|
|
coronary artery calcium
|
|
LN((CAC)+1)*0.2743
|
baseline survival at 10 years: 0.99833
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
10-year risk of a coronary heart event =
= 1 - 0.99833^EXP(X)
