Manzano et al developed two prediction models for elderly patients with heart failure (HF). The authors are from multiple institutions from around the world participating in the SENIORS trial.
Patient selection: age >= 70 years with heart failure *LVEF <= 35% or recent HF admission)
Outcome: all-cause mortality
Parameters:
(1) NYHA functional class from 1 to 4
(2) history of prior myocardial infarction (MI)
(3) left atrial diameter in centimeters
(4) serum uric acid in µmol/L
(5) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(6) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(7) 6 minute walking distance (6MWT) in meters
(8) history of coronary artery disease (CAD)
(9) age in years
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
history of prior MI
|
no
|
0
|
|
yes
|
0.556
|
CAD
|
no
|
0
|
|
yes
|
-0.462
|
Parameters
|
Points
|
NYHA class
|
0.39 * (NYHA class)
|
LA diameter
|
0.279 * ((LA diameter) - 4)
|
serum uric acid
|
(0.0022 * ((uric acid) - 400)
|
body mass index
|
-0.069 * ((BMI) - 25)
|
serum creatinine in µmol/L
|
0.0090 * ((creatinine) - 100)
|
age in years
|
0.040 * ((age) - 75)
|
6MWT
|
-0.0020 * ((6MWT) - 300)
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all 9 parameters)
2-year probability of all-cause mortality =
= 1 - (0.923 ^ (EXP(score)))