Manzano et al developed two prediction models for elderly patients with heart failure (HF). The authors are from multiple institutions from around the world participating in the SENIORS trial.
Patient selection: age >= 70 years with heart failure *LVEF <= 35% or recent HF admission)
Outcome: all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization
Parameters:
(1) NYHA functional class from 1 to 4
(2) history of prior myocardial infarction (MI)
(3) left atrial diameter in centimeters
(4) peripheral arterial disease (PAD)
(5) serum uric acid in µmol/L
(6) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(7) number of years with heart failure
(8) right bundle branch block (RBBB)
(9) diabetes mellitus
(10) orthopnea
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
history of prior MI
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.435
|
|
PAD
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.711
|
|
RBBB
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.427
|
|
diabetes mellitus
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.312
|
|
orthopnea
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.378
|
|
Parameters
|
Points
|
|
NYHA class
|
0.373 * (NYHA class)
|
|
LA diameter
|
0.244 * ((LA diameter) - 4)
|
|
serum uric acid
|
(0.0017 * ((uric acid) - 400)
|
|
body mass index
|
-0.044 * ((BMI) - 25)
|
|
years with heart failure
|
0.026 * (years)
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all 10 parameters)
2-year probability of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular hospitalization =
= 1 - (0.903 ^ (EXP(score)))
