Kovacs et al reported models for evaluating neck pain patients seen in routine clinical practice. One model predicts improvement in disability. The authors are from Hospital Universitario HLA-Moncloa and the Spanish Back Pain Research Network in Madrid.
Patient selection: neck pain
Parameters:
(1) 10 cm VAS score for pain down the arm
(2) disability by the Neck Disability Index (NDI, from 0 to 100)
(3) facet joint degeneration
(4) employment status
(5) chronic pain (>= 90 days)
(6) treated with NRT (neuro-reflexotherapy)
points for pain down the arm =
= 7.8238 - (0.78143 * (arm score))
points for disability =
= 0.1 * (NDI)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
facet joint degeneration
|
no
|
3.4
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
|
chronic pain
|
no
|
2.9
|
|
|
yes
|
0
|
|
employment status
|
financial assistance for neck pain
|
0
|
|
|
non-worker
|
2.8
|
|
|
working
|
5.3
|
|
therapy with NRT
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
7.2
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 36.6
• The higher the score the more likely that the disability from neck pain will improve.
X =
= (0.14929 * (score)) - 3.0255
probability of improvement =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
