Models of Holt et al for Mortality of an Older Adult with Hip Fracture: 120 Day Model

Description

Holt et al reported predictive models for mortality following hip fracture. One model is for 30-day mortality and a second model is for 120-day mortality. The authors are from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit Healthcare Information Group in Edinburgh.

Patient selection: age >= 50 years with hip fracture

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) ASA status

(3) gender

(4) pre-fracture residence

(5) pre-fracture mobility

(6) type of fracture

Parameter	Finding	Beta-Coefficients
age in years	50 to 59 years	0
	60 to 69 years	0.68
	70 to 79 years	1.24
	80 to 89 years	1.78
	>= 90 years	2.07
ASA status	1 or 2	0
	3	0.67
	4 or 5	1.37
gender	male	0
	female	-0.70
pre-fracture residence	own home	0
	long-term care	0.72
	rehabilitation	0.81
	acute hospital ward	0.88
	other	NA
pre-fracture mobility	no aids, unaccompanied	0
	one aid, unaccompanied	0.06
	2 aids or frame	0.14
	requires accompaniment	0.25
	unable to walk	0.48
type of fracture	intracapsular	0
	extracapsular	0.15
	subtrochanteric	0.18
	pathological	1.60

value of X =

= SUM(points for all of the beta-coefficients) - 3.70

risk of 120-day mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

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Models of Holt et al for Mortality of an Older Adult with Hip Fracture: 120 Day Model

Description

Specialty