Models of Giles et al for Predicting Perioperative Mortality in a Patient with an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Point Score

Description

Giles et al developed models for predicting perioperative mortality in Medicare patients undergoing repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm. One is based on a point score. The authors are from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School and CMS.

Patent selection: repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm, age >=67

Parameters for patient characteristics and comorbidities:

(1) age in years

(2) sex

(3) renal failure

(4) CHF

(5) peripheral vascular and/or cerebrovascular disease

Parameters for treatment effect:

(1) open versus endovascular

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	67 to 70	0
	71 to 75	1
	76 to 80	6
	> 80	11
sex	male	0
	female	4
renal failure	none	0
	no dialysis	7
	dialysis dependent	9
CHF	absent	0
	present	6
peripheral or cerebral vascular disease	absent	0
	present	3

score =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 33

• The higher the score the greater the risk of perioperative mortality.

Score	Risk of Mortality
< 3	low
3 to 11	medium
12 to 33	high

Risk Group	Mortality with Endo-vascular Repair	Mortality with Open Repair
low	< 1%	< 2.8%
medium	0.9 to 2%	2.8 to 6.3%
high	> 2%	> 6.3%

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Models of Giles et al for Predicting Perioperative Mortality in a Patient with an Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Point Score

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