de Gelder et al reported models for outcomes of an older adult in the Emergency Department. One model predicts 90-day mortality. The authors are from Leiden University, Alrijne Hospital Erasmus MC and Institute of Evidence-Based Medicine in Older Age in The Netherlands.
Patient selection: age >= 70 years
Exclusion: red code (highest urgency); lack of informed consent
Outcome: 90-day mortality
Parameter:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) living in residential care or nursing home
(4) falls-related ED visit
(5) indications for blood test(s)
(6) needs help dressing
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.462 * ((age) / 5)
sex
male
0
female
-1.397
living site
nursing home or residential care
0.730
other
0
falls-related ED visit
no
0
yes
-0.627
indications for blood test
no
0
yes
1.254
needs help dressing
no
0
yes
1.281
X =
= SUM(points for all 7 parameters) - 10.538
probability of mortality =
= 1/(1+EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79 (0.67 in second cohort).
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
