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Models of Christianen et al for Swallowing Dysfunction After Chemoradiation for Head and Neck Cancer: Problems Choking When Swallowing

Description

Christianen et al developed several predictive models for swallowing dysfunction following chemoradiation for head and neck cancer. One model predicts problems with swallowing. The authors are from University Medical Center Groningen and VU University Medical Center Amsterdam in The Netherlands.


Patient selection: head and neck cancer after chemoradiation

 

Outcome: problems choking while swallowing

 

Parameters:

(1) V60 of esophageal inlet muscle (EIM) in percent

(2) mean radiation dose to supraglottic larynx in Gray (Gy)

 

X =

= (0.066 * (mean dose to supraglottic larynx)) + (0.020 * (V60 EIM)) – 7.07

 

probability of choking while swallowing =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Unfortunately, this does not give value matching the accompanying diagram. A nomogram is given with

 

points for V60 EIM =

= 0.08 * (percent)

 

points for radiation dose =

= 0.239 * (dose)

 

total score =

= SUM(both parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 26

 

Score

Probability

0 to 16

(0.01706 * ((score)^2)) – (0.02692 * (score)) + 0.0174

16 to 26

(0.2455 * ((score)^2)) – (7.127 * (score)) + 55.35

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.77.


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