Patient selection: ruptured aortic aneurysm, following surgery
Parameters from stepwise logistic regression analysis:
(1) coagulopathy
(2) ischemic colitis
(3) duration of inotrope therapy in hours
(4) time to admission to operating room in hours
(5) age in years
(6) perioperative myocardial infarction
(7) renal failure
(8) preoperative hemoglobin level in g/L
|
Parameter
|
Findings
|
Points
|
|
coagulopathy
|
yes
|
2.07
|
|
|
no
|
-2.07
|
|
ischemic colitis
|
yes
|
1.86
|
|
|
no
|
-1.86
|
|
duration of inotrope therapy
|
<= 48 hours
|
-1.57
|
|
|
> 48 hours
|
1.57
|
|
admission to OR
|
<= 1 hour
|
-1.53
|
|
|
> 1 hour
|
1.53
|
|
age
|
|
0.143 * (age)
|
|
perioperative myocardial infarction
|
yes
|
1.39
|
|
|
no
|
-1.39
|
|
renal failure
|
dialysis
|
0.99
|
|
|
serum creatinine > 2.3 mg/dL
|
1.32
|
|
|
no
|
-2.31
|
|
preoperative hemoglobin
|
|
-0.04 * (hemoglobin)
|
where:
• The handling of renal failure is a little ambiguous. A guess is that dialysis and serum creatinine are scored separately (i.e., total points 2.31 if serum creatinine > 2.3 and on dialysis).
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.25
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
