Chen et al reported several models for describing mortality associated with various states of abdominal aortic aneurysms. One model reports mortality for surgery on an unruptured aneurysm. The authors are from the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.
Patient selection: unruptured aortic aneurysm
Parameters from stepwise logistic regression analysis:
(1) perioperative myocardial infarction (MI)
(2) postoperative mechanical ventilation duration in hours
(3) history of peripheral vascular disease
(4) preoperative serum creatinine in mg/dL
(5) history of congestive heart failure (CHF)
Parameter
Findings
Points
perioperative MI
Yes
1.61
No
-1.61
mechanical ventilation
> 48 hours
1.38
<= 48 hours
-1.38
history peripheral vascular disease
Yes
1.07
No
-1.07
preop serum creatinine
0.884 * (creatinine)
history of CHF
Yes
0.96
No
-0.96
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 2.58
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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