Models of Bashir et al for In-Hospital Mortality Following Surgery on the Proximal Aorta: Nonelective Surgery

Description

Bashir et al reported logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality following surgery performed on the proximal aorta. One model is for patients undergoing nonelective surgery. The authors are from Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, University of Liverpool, University Hospitals of South Manchester, and the University of Manchester in England.

Patient selection: nonelective surgery on the proximal aorta

Outcome: in-hospital mortality (occurred in 16.5% of the cohort)

Parameters:

(1) age of the patient at the time of the operation in years

(2) history of previous cardiac surgery

(3) serum creatinine in µmol/L

(4) peripheral vascular disease

(5) preoperative nonsinus rhythm

(6) preoperative ventilation

(7) cardiogenic shock

(8) priority

(9) concomitant CABG operation

Parameter	Finding	Points
age	< 70 years	0
	70 to 79 years	0.5822
	>= 80 years	0.6195
history of cardiac surgery	no	0
	yes	1.3537
serum creatinine	<= 200 µmol/L	0
	> 200 µmol/L	0.5482
peripheral vascular disease	no	0
	yes	0.3741
preoperative nonsinus rhythm	no	0
	yes	0.6029
preoperative ventilation	no	0
	yes	0.4179
cardiogenic shock	no	0
	yes	0.5916
priority	urgent	0
	emergency	1.0073
	salvage	2.2113
concomitant CABG	no	0
	yes	0.8319

X =

= SUM(points for all 9 parameters) - 3.3212

probability of in-hospital death =

= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.

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Models of Bashir et al for In-Hospital Mortality Following Surgery on the Proximal Aorta: Nonelective Surgery

Description

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