Models of Bashir et al for In-Hospital Mortality Following Surgery on the Proximal Aorta: Elective Surgery

Description

Bashir et al reported logistic regression models for in-hospital mortality following surgery performed on the proximal aorta. One model is for patients undergoing elective surgery. The authors are from Liverpool Heart and Chest Hospital, University of Liverpool, University Hospitals of South Manchester, and the University of Manchester in England.

Patient selection: elective surgery on the proximal aorta

Outcome: in-hospital mortality (occurred in 4.6% of the cohort)

Parameters:

(1) age of the patient at the time of the operation in years

(2) sex

(3) NYHA class

(4) history of previous cardiac surgery

(5) pulmonary disease

(6) neurologic disease

(7) preoperative nonsinus rhythm

(8) triple vessel disease

(9) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) percent

(10) concomitant CABG operation

(11) operation on the arch segment of the aorta

(12) type aortic disease

Parameter	Finding	Points
age	< 70 years	0
	70 to 79 years	0.8335
	>= 80 years	1.0542
sex	male	0
	female	0.3945
NYHA class	1 or 2	0
	3 or 4	0.3549
history of cardiac surgery	no	0
	yes	1.3339
pulmonary disease	no	0
	yes	0.4734
neurologic disease	no	0
	yes	0.7473
preoperative nonsinus rhythm	no	0
	yes	0.4491
triple vessel disease	no	0
	yes	0.8491
LVEF	> 50%	0
	30 to 50%	0.3169
	< 30%	1.0261
concomitant CABG	no	0
	yes	0.8339
operation on aortic arch	no	0
	yes	0.8852
type of aortic disease	aneurysm	0
	other than aneurysm	0.6036

X =

= SUM(points for all 12 parameters) - 4.8583

probability of in-hospital death =

= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.

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Models of Bashir et al for In-Hospital Mortality Following Surgery on the Proximal Aorta: Elective Surgery

Description

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