Balkau et al reported models for the risk of a male being diagnosed with diabetes in the future. These can help to identify a patient who should be screened more closely. The authors are from multiple institutions in France participating in the DESIR study.
Patient selection: French adult male
Parameters:
(1) current smoker
(2) waist circumference in cm
(3) hypertension (blood pressure >= 140/90 OR on drugs for hypertension)
(4) fasting glucose in mmol/L
(5) serum GGT in IU/L
(6) number of deleterious alleles in TCF7L2 and IL6
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Clinical Only
|
Clinical + Lab
|
All
|
|
smoker
|
no
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.72
|
0.88
|
0.94
|
|
waist circum
|
|
0.081 * WC
|
0.060 * WC
|
0.060 * WC
|
|
hypertension
|
no
|
0
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
|
yes
|
0.50
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
glucose
|
|
NA
|
10.15*LN(Glu)
|
10.17*LN(Glu)
|
|
GGT
|
|
NA
|
0.39*LN(GGT)
|
0.42*LN(GGT)
|
|
number alleles
|
|
NA
|
NA
|
0.14 * (count)
|
where:
• Glucose and GGT are reported to be log-transformed.
• The coefficient as published for fasting glucose results in higher-than-expected values. More reasonable values can be obtained if the beta-coefficient is 1.015 due to misplaced decimal point.
value of X for clinical model =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 10.45
value of X for clinical plus laboratory model =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 10.53
value of X for clinical plus laboratory plus genetic model =
= SUM(beta-coefficients) - 10.91
probability of diabetes over the next 9 years=
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is claimed to be 0.73 for the clinical only, 0.85 for the clinical plus laboratory, and 0.85 for all of the parameters.
