Zhao et al reported models for predicting a cerebrovascular event following a primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). This included a nomogram for predicting survival. The authors are from Peking Union Medical College, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, and Fuwai Hospital in China.
Patient selection: status post percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI)
Outcome: 5-year survival
NOTE: The nomogram reports the linear predictor for stroke and 5-year survival (unclear if this is overall survival or stroke-related survival).
Parameters:
(1) age group
(2) history of hypertension
(3) history of atrial fibrillation
(4) target lesion on angiography involves branches
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
age group
|
<= 40 years
|
100
|
|
|
41 to 50 years
|
80
|
|
|
51 to 60 years
|
60
|
|
|
61 to 70 years
|
40
|
|
|
71 to 80 years
|
20
|
|
|
> 80 years
|
0
|
|
history of hypertension
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
18.7
|
|
history of atrial fibrillation
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
39.8
|
|
target lesion
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
26.7
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 185.2
• The higher the score the greater the risk of a cerebrovascular accident.
• If the score is less than 120, the 5-year survival is over 90%.
• If the score is over 120, then the following equations apply:
value of X =
= (5.116 - (0.02422 * (score))
probability of 5-year survival =
= 1 / ( 1 + EXP((-1) * X))
