Zhang et al reported a model for predicting mortality for a patient with a necrotizing soft tissue infection admitted to the intensive care unit. The authors are from Wenzhou Medical University in China.
Patient selection: necrotizing soft tissue infection, in ICU
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years
(2) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(3) serum creatine kinase in U/L
(4) prothrombin time in seconds
(5) invasive mechanical ventilation
Parameter
Finding
Points
age of the patient
< 60 years
0
>= 60 years
1
serum creatinine
< 132 µmol/L
0
>= 132 µmol/L
2
serum creatine kinase
< 1,104 U/L
0
>= 1,104 U/L
1
prothrombin time
< 24.4 seconds
0
>= 24.4 seconds
2
invasive ventilation
no
0
yes
2
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 8
• A score >= 4 had the maximum Youden index (0.79) for mortality.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.94.
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