Zhang et al reported a model for predicting mortality for a patient with cirrhosis and the hepatorenal syndrome. The authors are from Beijing Ditan Hospital and Capital Medical University in Beijing.
Patient selection: cirrhosis and hepatorenal syndrome
Parameters:
(1) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)
(2) percent neutrophils in the peripheral blood differential count
(3) serum ALT in U/L
(4) serum creatinine in µmol/L
Parameter
Finding
Points
hepatocellular carcinoma
no
0
yes
1
percent neutrophils
<= 70%
0
> 70%
1
serum ALT
<= 40 U/L
0
> 40 U/L
1
serum creatinine
<= 127 µmol/L
0
> 127 µmol/L
2
total score =
= SUM(points for all of these parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 5
Score
Mortality (Figure 1a)
0
24%
1
43%
2
52%
3
71%
4
81%
5
93%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.843.
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