Model of Zeng et al for Predicting Discharge to a Post-Acute Care Facility After a Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA)

Description

Zeng et al reported a model for predicting discharge to a post-acute care facility after a total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This can help to identify a patient with need for ongoing assistance in the recovery period. The authors are from Kaiser Permanente Colorado and University of Colorado.

Patient selection: status post total knee arthroplasty (TKA)

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) any help needed for basic hygiene and needs

(3) how much mobility affects the ability to care for home and to run errands

(4) number of days per week of moderate-to-strenuous exercise

(5) someone staying on hand to help during the recovery

(6) reliable source of transportation

(7) dementia

(8) other neurological disorder

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years		0.072 * (age)
help needed	no	0
	yes	1.169
impact mobility status	none	0
	sometimes	0.473
	most of the time or cane	1.302
	all of the time with assist device	0.724
	all of the time plus balance issues	1.917
days with exercise	0	1.31
	1 or 2	0.75
	3 or more	0
someone staying with	all of the time	0
	most of the time	0.514
	sometimes	1.364
	none	1.340
reliable transportation	all of the time	0
	most of the time	0.786
	sometimes but difficult to find	0.741
	no one	0.905
dementia	no	0
	yes	1.202
other neurologic disorder	no	0
	yes	2.005

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 10.067

probability of discharge to a post-acute care facility =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (score)))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.

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Model of Zeng et al for Predicting Discharge to a Post-Acute Care Facility After a Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA)

Description

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