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Risk for Ventilator Associated Pneumonia Prediction Model

Purpose: To estimate the risk for a patient developing ventilator associated pneumonia based on the model of Zahar et al.

Description

Zahar et al developed a model for predicting the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in a patient. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from closer monitoring and interventions to reduce that risk. The authors are from multiple teaching hospitals in France.


Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) SOFA score on admission to the ICU

(3) parenteral nutrition on days 1 and 2

(4) broad spectrum antimicrobials on days 1 and 2

(5) duration of mechanical ventilation in days

 


Parameter

Finding

Points

gender

male

0.6795

 

female

0

SOFA score

<= 2

0

 

3 or 4

0.9447

 

5 to 8

1.9975

 

>= 9

1.7600

parenteral nutrition

no

0.8267

 

yes

0

broad spectrum antibiotics

no

0.7466

 

yes

0

duration of mechanical ventilation

<= 4 days

0

 

5 to 7 days

2.7391

 

8 to 15 days

3.7713

 

> 15 days

5.2096

 

X =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters) - 7.9883

 

probability of VAP =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10