Zacharias et al reported a model for predicting progression of chronic kidney disease to renal failure. The authors are members of the GCKD Investigators. and are from multiple institutions in Germany.
Patient selection: adult with CKD
Parameters:
(1) serum creatinine in mg/dL
(2) serum cystatin C in mg/L
(3) urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) in mg/g
(4) serum BUN in mg/dL
(5) hemoglobin in g/dL
(6) serum albumin in g/L
Parameter
Points
serum creatinine
1.128 * LOG2(creatinine)
serum cystatin C
1.108 * LOG2(cystatin)
UACR
0.135 * LOG2(UACR)
serum BUN
0.125 * LOG2(BUN)
hemoglobin
-0.523*LOG2(hemoglobin)
serum albumin
-1.07 * LOG2(albumin)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 4.991
value of Y =
= EXP(1.304 * Y)
value of Z =
= EXP(-0.01389 * Y)
probability of progression over the next 4 years =
= 1 - Z
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.
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