You et al reported a nomogram for predicting a sternal incision problem following thoracic surgery. The authors are from Army Medical University at Chongqing, China.
Patient selection: status post medial sternotomy
Surgical incision problems may be due to infection, "suture rejection", and other causes of delayed healing.
Parameters:
(1) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter, from 10 to 55
(2) number of days in ICU, from 0 to 80
(3) revision surgery for bleeding
(4) diabetes mellitus
points for BMI =
= (2.0467 * (BMI)) - 20.467
points for time in ICU =
= 1.25 * (days)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
revision surgery for bleeding
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
31.4
|
|
diabetes mellitus
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
14.7
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 238.2
value of X =
= (0.05529 * (score)) - 5.684
probability of sternal incision problem =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.71.
