Yiu et al reported a model for predicting the risk of serious infection for a patient with psoriasis who is receiving systemic therapy. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Manchester and University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf.
Patient selection: psoriasis with systemic therapy
Outcome: 1-year risk of serious infection
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) PASI, from 0 to 72
(4) units of alcohol per week (standard drinks)
(5) number of comorbidities
(6) COPD
(7) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(8) employment status
(9) therapy with etanercept
(10) therapy with infliximab
(11) therapy with adalimumab
(12) therapy with usekinumab
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Parameters
|
Findings
|
Poitns
|
|
age in years
|
|
-0.0042559 * (age)
|
|
sex
|
male
|
0
|
|
|
female
|
0.3036825
|
|
PASI
|
|
0.0062117 * (PASI)
|
|
units of alcohol
|
|
0.0084999 * (units)
|
|
number of comorbidities
|
|
0.080934 * (number)
|
|
COPD
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.5743102
|
|
BMI
|
|
0.0098085 * (BMI)
|
|
employment
|
employed
|
0
|
|
|
school
|
0
|
|
|
unemployed
|
0.354117
|
|
|
retired
|
0.7202485
|
|
etanercept
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
-0.140139
|
|
infliximab
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
1.267439
|
|
adalimumab
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.0975531
|
|
usekinumab
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
0.2599529
|
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 4.985364
probability of serious infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
