Yang et al reported a model for predicting all-cause mortality for a patient with type 2 diabetes. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Li Ka Shing Institute of Health Sciences, Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Hospital Authority Head Office in Hong Kong.
Patient selection: adult with type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(4) albumin to creatine ratio (ACR) in mg per mmol
(5) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meter (MDRD recalibrated to Ma et al)
(6) hemoglobin in g/dL
(7) peripheral arterial disease (PAD)
(8) history of cancer
(9) insulin use at enrollment
Parameters
Findings
Points
age in years
0.0586 * (age)
sex
female
-0.7049
male
0
BMI
0.1078 * ((BMI)-26)
ACR
0.1469 * (LOG10(1 + (ACR)))^2
eGFR
> 60 years
-0.0165 * 60
<= 60 years
-0.0165 * (eGFR)
hemoglobin
-0.1913 * (hemoglobin)
PAD
no
0
yes
0.5698
history of cancer
no
0
yes
1.3384
insulin use
no
0
yes
0.7035
where:
• The paper reports hemoglobin in g/L. If that is used the results become unbelievable.
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
X =
= EXP(0.9768 * ((score) + 0.0415))
5-year all-cause mortality =
= 1 - (0.9567^X)
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