Model of Yamanouchi et al for Predicting End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) in a Patient with Diabetic Nephropathy

Patient selection: diabetic nephropathy

Parameters:

(1) Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) index of Lennartz et al (average score -2.74)

(2) D-score of Hoshino et al, from 0 to 25

value of X =

= (0.910 * ((KFRE) +2.74)) + (0.068 * ((D-score) - 19.5))

predicted risk of ESRD =

= 1 - (0.535 ^ EXP(X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.79.

• Combining the KFRE and D-score did not significantly improve results of the KFRE score alone.