Wu and Chang reported a model for differentiating lower extremity necrotizing soft tissue infection from severe cellulitis. The authors are from Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Taiwan.
Patient selection: severe acute infection of a lower extremity
Parameters:
(1) gender
(2) subjective fever
(3) IV substance user
(4) blood lactate in mg/dL
Parameter
Finding
Beta coefficient
gender
female
0
male
2.71
subjective fever
no
0
yes
2.61
IV drug user
no
0
yes
2.63
blood lactate
not elevated
0
elevated
1.54
where:
• The decision point lactate was not explicitly stated. The upper limit of the normal reference range was not stated.
value of X =
= SUM(beta coefficients for all of the parameters) - 2.28
probability of necrotizing soft tissue infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X)
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