Wang et al reported a model for predicting Survival for a paitent with a small cell lung cancer (SCLC). The authors are from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College.
Patient selection: small cell lung cancer
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 40 to 90
(2) gender
(3) race
(4) Hispanic
(5) Charlson/Devo Score
(7) AJCC version 8 stage
(8) treatment type
(9) laterality
points for age =
= (0.0592 * (age)) - 2.368
|
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
|
gender |
female |
0 |
|
|
male |
0.53 |
|
race |
Black |
0 |
|
|
other |
0.04 |
|
|
White |
0.53 |
|
Hispanic |
no |
1.15 |
|
|
yes |
0 |
|
Charlson/Devo |
0 |
0 |
|
|
1 |
0.63 |
|
|
>= 2 |
1.21 |
|
AJCC |
1A |
0 |
|
|
1B |
0.63 |
|
|
2A |
1.57 |
|
|
2B |
2.10 |
|
|
3A |
2.85 |
|
|
3B |
3.46 |
|
|
3C |
4.36 |
|
|
4A |
5.4 |
|
|
4B |
6.9 |
|
laterality |
not a paired site |
1.28 |
|
|
one side |
1.07 |
|
|
bilateral, side of origin known |
0 |
|
|
bilateral with side of origin unknown |
1.47 |
|
|
midline |
1.47 |
Treatment Type
|
Surgery |
Chemotherapy |
Radiation |
Points |
|
no |
no |
no |
6.77 |
|
no |
no |
yes |
5.15 |
|
no |
yes |
no |
2.5 |
|
no |
yes |
yes |
1.28 |
|
yes |
no |
no |
2.08 |
|
yes |
no |
yes |
2.57 |
|
yes |
yes |
no |
0.45 |
|
yes |
yes |
yes |
0 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score:
• maximum score: 22.56
• A score >= 13 is associated with a 0% 5-year survival.
|
Score |
5-Year Survival |
|
< 2 |
> 76% |
|
2 to 7 |
(-0.003323 * ((score)^2)) - (0.04564 * (score)) + 0.8696 |
|
7 to 12.99 |
(0.005655 * ((score)^2)) - (0.1756 * (score)) + 1.328 |
|
>= 13 |
0% |
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology
