Wang and Zhao reported a model for predicting irreversible worsening in cardiac function for a patient with acute decompensated heart failure. This can help to identify a patient with a worse prognosis. The authors are from Aerospace Center Hospital in Beijing, China.
Pateint selection: acute decompensated heart failure
Parameters:
(1) age in years, from 20 to 100 years
(2) NYHA class, from 2 to 4
(3) blood urea nitrogen (BUN) in mg/dL, from 0 to 65
(4) serum albumin in g/L, from 10 to 60
(5) vasopressor therapy
points for age =
= (0.5675 * (age)) - 11.35
points for BUN =
= 1.143 * (BUN)
points for albumin =
= 120 - (2 * (albumin))
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
NYHA class
|
2
|
0
|
|
|
3
|
8.9
|
|
|
4
|
22.9
|
|
vasopressor use
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
43
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 285.6
value of X =
= (0.05978 * (score)) - 9.757
probability of irreversible worsened cardiac function =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.
