Van Straalen et al reported a model for predicting new-onset chronic uveitis in a patient with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). The authors are from PRINTO and multiple institutions in Europe and Israel.
Patient selection: juvenile idiopathic arthritis
Parameters:
(1) ANA status
(2) age at JIA onset in years
(3) ILAR category
Parameters
Findings
Points
ANA status
positive
0.46
negative
0
age at JIA onset
-0.19 * (age)
ILAR arthritis category
oligo, psoriatic, undifferentiated
0.34
rheumatoid factor negative polyarthritis
0
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) + 0.71
probability of new-onset chronic uveitis =
= 1 - ((baseline survival probability for interval)^(EXP(X)))
Time Interval
Baseline Survival
2 years
0.94
4 years
0.91
7 years
0.90
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve for 7-year risk is 0.70-0.75.
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