van der Meer et al developed models for patients with chronic viral hepatitis C hepatitis and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis. One model predicts the risk of mortality. The authors are from Erasmuc Medical Center in Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Patient selection: chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score 4, 5 or 6)
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years
(2) platelet count in 10^9/L
(3) serum AST in IU/L
(4) serum ALT in IU/L
(5) gender
ratio of AST to ALT =
= (serum AST) / (serum ALT)
risk of mortality score =
= (6 * (age in years)) + (64.5 if male, 0 if female) + (258.8 * LOG10(ratio AST to ALT)) – ((platelet count per 10^9/L)/10)
Risk Score
Risk Group
5-Year Mortality
< 87.1
low
0%
87.1 to 221.2
intermediated
7%
> 221.2
high
22%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.78.
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