Model of van der Meer et al for Risk of Clinical Disease Progression (Rc) in a Patient with Chronic Hepatitis C Viral Hepatitis and Compensated Advanced Hepatic Fibrosis

Description

van der Meer et al developed models for patients with chronic viral hepatitis C hepatitis and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis. One model predicts the risk of clinical disease progression. The authors are from Erasmuc Medical Center in Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Patient selection: chronic HCV infection and compensated advanced hepatic fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score 4, 5 or 6)

Parameters:

(1) age of the patient in years

(2) platelet count in 10^9/L

(3) serum AST in IU/L

(4) serum ALT in IU/L

(5) gender

(6) HCV genotype

ratio of AST to ALT =

= (serum AST) / (serum ALT)

Parameter	Finding	Points
gender	male	83.7
	female	0
genotype	type 3	60.6
	other	0

risk of mortality score =

= (5.2 * (age in years)) + (points for gender) + (358.2 * LOG10(ratio AST to ALT)) + (points for genotype) – (2.8 * (platelet count per 10^9/L)) + (0.00517 * ((platelet count per 10^9/L)^2)

Risk Score	Risk Group	5-Year Mortality
< -91.9	low	1.6%
-91.9 to 61	intermediated	14%
> 61	high	53%

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.80.

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Description

Specialty

ICD-10