Tunstall-Pedoe et al reported a model for predicting the risk of coronary artery disease for a patient seen in primary care. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from interventions to reduce the risk. The authors are from Ninewells Hospital and Medical School in Dundee, Scotland
Patient selection: adult in primary care
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(3) serum total cholesterol in mg/dL
(4) smoking status
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.0651 * (age)
systolic BP
0.010543 * (SBP)
total cholesterol
0.009378 * (cholesterol)
smoking status
never smoked
0
ex-smoker
0.1453
pipe smoker
0.1453
cigar smoker
0.1453
cigarettes, 1 to 9 per day
0.4483
cigarettes, 10 per day
0.9242
cigarettes, 11 to 19 per day
1.019
cigarettes, 20 per day
0.9333
cigarettes, 21 to 29 per day
1.263
cigarettes, >= 30 per day
1.431
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 10.117
5-year risk of coronary artery disease =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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