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Model of Tu et al for Predicting the Risk of Anastomotic Leak Following Gastrectomy for Gastric Carcinoma

Description

Tu et al developed a nomogram for predicting an anastomotic leak following a gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The model can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Fujian Medical University Union Hospital in Fuzhou, China.


Patient selection: gastrectomy for gastric cancer, laparoscopic or open

 

Outcome: anastomotic leak

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) hemoglobin in g/dL

(3) malnutrition

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 65 years

0

 

>= 65 years

7.2

hemoglobin

> 8.0 g/dL

0

 

<= 8.0 g/dL

9

malnutrition

no

0

 

yes

10

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score:

• The higher the score the greater the risk of an anastomotic leak.

• The risk becomes significant when all 3 risk factors are present.

 

Total Score

Risk of Leak

0

< 1%

7.2

1-2%

9

1-2%

10

1-2%

16.2

3-4%

17.2

3-4%

19

4%

26.2

74%

 

Alternatively

 

Number of Risk Factors Present

Risk of Leak

0

< 1%

1

1-2%

2

3-4%

3

74%

 


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