Description

Silaruks et al reported a model for predicting the disappearance of left atrial thrombi after oral anticoagulation therapy for patients with mitral stenosis. Disappearance of atrial thrombi increases the safety of percutaneous transvenous mitral commissurotomy. The authors are from Khon Kaen University in Thailand.


Patient selection: mitral stenosis prior to percutaneous transvenous mitral commissurotomy

 

Duration of oral anticoagulation: up to 34 months

 

Parameters:

(1) NYHA functional class, from 1 to 4

(2) area of left atrial thrombi in transesophageal echocardiography from 0.5 to 12.5 square cm

 

X =

= 8.0827 - (1.8012 * (NYHA class)) - (0.7028 * (area of thrombi))

 

probability of thrombus disappearance after oral anticoagulation therapy =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.92.


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