Sheng et al reported a model for predicting the risk of recurrence of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) following post-circular pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation(CPVA). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Jiangsu University, Xuzhou Medical University and Soochow University in China.
Patient selection: status post circular pulmonary vein radiofrequency ablation (CPVA) for atrial fibrillation
Parameters:
(1) age in years, mean 63 years, 18 to 80 years of age
(2) severity of mitral regurgitation
(3) left atrial appendage emptying velocity (LAAV) in cm/s (most in range from 40 to 70, range set to 30 to 100 in accompanying nomogram)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.92 * (age)
mitral regurgitation
none
0
mild
1.263
moderate
2.325.
severe
5.111
LAAV
-0.113 * (velocity)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 3.253
probability of recurrence =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 in the derivation and 0.87 in the validation cohorts.
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