Peixoto et al reported a model for predicting in-hospital mortality for a patient with ischemic colitis. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Centro Hospitalar de Sao Joao and University of Porto in Portugal.
Patient selection: ischemic colitis
Parameters:
(1) vasopressor support
(2) ICU admission
(3) atrial fibrillation
Parameter
Finding
Points
vasopressor support
no
0
yes
2.416 (OR 11.21)
ICU admission
no
0
yes
1.948 (OR 7.01)
atrial fibrillation
no
0
yes
1.608 (OR 4.99)
value of X =
= SUM(points for the parameters) - 4.09
probability of in-hospital mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
where:
• The published paper used +4.09 instead of -4.09.
• It states that a score of -3.28 was the best cut-off, but this cannot be derived by the values shown.
• The abstract says that mortality was 32% if all 3 parameters are present. This requires the coefficient to be -6.7257.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.89.
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