Patel et al reported a model for prediction 24-hour mortality following inter-hospital transport of a patient. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from the Medical College of Wisconsin, University of Chicago, War Memorial Hospital, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, University of Kansas and the John Dingell Veteran's Affairs Medical Center (Detroit).
Patient selection: inter-hospital transfer
Parameters:
(1) SOFA score on the day of transfer
(2) FIO2 on arrival
(3) cardiac arrest prior to transfer
(4) vasoactive/vasopressor drug use
Parameter
Finding
Points
SOFA score
<= 5
0
6 to 11
66.6
>= 12
100
FIO2
< 50%
0
50 to 79%
5.9
>= 80%
60
cardiac arrest
no
0
yes
76.8
vasoactive drug use
no
0
yes
36
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 272.8
value of X =
= (0.02064 * (score)) - 5.545
probability of 24-hour mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.
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