Parasa et al reported a model for predicting the risk of progression of Barrett's esophagus to neoplasia. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe and the United States.
Patient selection: Barrett's esophagus
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) cigarette smoking
(3) length of Barrett's segment in cm
(4) histologically confirmed low-grade dysplasia
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0
male
9
cigarette smoking
no
0
yes
5
length of segment
(length in cm)
confirmed low grade dysplasia
no
0
yes
11
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: depends on length of segment, around 32
• The higher the score the greater the risk of progression.
Total Score
Risk of Progression
Annual Risk of Progression
0 to 10
low
0.13%
11 to 20
intermediate
0.73%
> 20
high
2.1%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.7.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
