Pan et al developed a model for predicting mortality for a cirrhotic patient in the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute renal failure (ARF). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University in Taiwan.


Patient selection: critically-ill patient with cirrhosis and acute renal failure



(1) MBRS score (mean arterial blood pressure, bilirubin, respiratory failure, sepsis) on admission to the ICU

(2) APACHE III score on admission to ICU


X =

= (1.117 * (MBRS)) + (0.04 * (APACHE III score)) - 3.122


probability for death =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))


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