Model of Nowacki et al for Predicting Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection in a Patient with Ulcerative Colitis

Description

Nowacki et al reported a score for predicting the risk of cytomegalovirus infection in a patient with ulcerative colitis. The authors are from University Hospital Munster, HELIOS Albert-Schweitzer Hospital and Klinikum Bielfeld in Germany.

Patient selection: ulcerative colitis

Parameters:

(1) disease duration in months

(2) partial Mayo score (stool frequency, rectal bleeding, global assessment, from 0 to 9; omits endoscopy)

(3) steroid dose per day

(4) TNF-alpha inhibitor

(5) UC manifestations (left-sided colitis, pancolitis, proctitis)

Parameter	Finding	Points
disease duration		-0.007 * (months)
partial Mayo score		0.312 * (score)
daily steroid dose	none	0
	< 20 mg per day	0.887
	>= 20 mg/day	1.774
TNF alpha inhibitor	no	0
	yes	2.41
UC manifestations	none	0
	proctitis only	0.668
	left-sided colitis	1.336
	pancolitis	2.004

X =

= SUM(points for all 5 parameters) - 5.8329

probability of CMV infection =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.086.

To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.

Model of Nowacki et al for Predicting Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection in a Patient with Ulcerative Colitis

Description

Specialty