COPD Relapse Model Predicts Risk of Relapse - Equation

Description

Murata et al developed a model for predicting the risk of relapse following outpatient therapy of a patient with decompensated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This can help identify patients who may require closer monitoring following release. The authors are from the Veterans Affairs Medical Center and University of New Mexico in Albequerque.

Parameters:

(1) history of previous outpatient visit in past 7 days

(2) previous relapse rate

(3) use of oxygen at home

(4) number of nebulizer doses given

(5) use of aminophylline

(6) use of prednisone at discharge

(7) use of antibiotics at discharge

relapse rate =

= (number of relapses after outpatient therapy) / (number of outpatient treatments for COPD)

Parameter	Finding	Points
previous outpatient visit	none in past 7 days	-1
	one or more in past week	+1
previous relapse rate
use of oxygen at home	no	-1
	yes	+1
number of nebulizer doses
use of aminophylline	no	-1
	yes	+1
use of prednisone	no	-1
	yes	+1
use of antibiotics	no	-1
	yes	+1

where:

• Treatment of COPD may have changed since the paper was written.

X =

= (0.285 * (points for previous visit)) + (1.53 * (points for previous relapse rate)) - (0.419 * (points for home oxygen)) + (0.394 * (points for nebulizer doses)) + (0.313 * (points for aminophylline)) - (0.444 * (points for prednisone)) + (0.355 * (points for antibiotics)) - 2.75

probability of relapse within 48 hours =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

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Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10

Model of Murata et al for Predicting Relapse Following Outpatient Treatment for Decompensated Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)

Purpose: To predict the risk of relapse for a patient with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) treated as an outpatient using the model of Murata et al.

Description

Specialty

Objective

ICD-10