Model of Moore et al for Predicting the Probability of Massive Blood Transfusion in a Trauma Patient

 

Parameters:

(1) Injury Severity Score (ISS)

(2) minimum pH during first hour after arrival

(3) minimum systolic blood pressure during first hour after arrival in mm Hg

 

Parameter	Finding	Points
Injury Severity Scale (ISS)	<= 25	0
	> 25	1

 

X =

= (0.7 * (points for ISS)) - (5.6 * (minimum pH)) - (0.04 * (minimum systolic blood pressure)) + 42.1

 

probability of massive blood transfusion =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.8.