Description

Moore et al developed a simple model for predicting mortality in burn patients. These can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the Victorian Adult Burns Service (VABS), The Alfred Hospital in Melbourne, Monash University and Royal Victoria Hospital in Belfast.


Patient selection: burn patient admitted to the ICU

 

Parameters:

(1) APACHE III-j score based on first 24 hours in the ICU, from 0 to 200. This is based on age, chronic conditions and physiologic parameters associated with injury and immediate resuscitative measures.

(2) percent of body surface area showing full thickness burns, from 0 to 100

 

X =

= (0.03782 * (APACHE III-j score)) + (0.028344 * (FTSA)) - 4.66476

 

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.854.


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