Description

Mearelli et al reported a model for predicting sepsis in a patient presenting to the Emergency Department. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Trieste, Eastern Piedmont University, University of Brescia, University "Sapienza" of Rome, General Hospital of Susa and the University of Turin.


Patient selection: Emergency Department with SIRS

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years, from 0 to 110 years

(2) SOFA score from 0 to 14

(3) antibacterial therapy within the past 30 days

(4) hyperthermia (fever, > 38°C))

(5) leukocytosis (> 12,000 per µL)

(6) serum CRP in mg/dL

 

points for age =

= 0.909090 * (age)

 

points for SOFA score =

= 4.5 * (SOFA)

 

Parameters

Findings

Points

antibacterial therapy in last 30 days

no

0

 

yes

13

hyperthermia

no

0

 

yes

40

leukocytosis

no

0

 

yes

10.2

serum CRP

<= 21.75 mg/dL

0

 

> 21.75 mg/dL

37

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 263.2

The higher the score the greater the risk of sepsis.

 

Score

Percent Sepsis

< 41.1

< 10%

41.1 - 113.3

(0.000029546 * ((score)^2)) + (0.0052411 * (score)) - 0.16968

113.3 - 128.9

(-0.000089029 * ((score)^2)) + (0.027992 * (score)) - 1.2288

> 128.9

> 90%

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve is 0.86.


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