Ma et al reported a model for predicting the risk of unsuccessful therapy of a patient with multi-drug resistant (MDR) tuberculosis. The authors are from Xi'an Chest Hospital and Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention in China.
Patient selection: multi-drug resistance tuberculosis, non-miliary (see limit of 6 lung lesions below)
Parameters:
(1) number of lung lesions, from 1 to 6
(2) sex
(3) age in years, from 0 to 90
(4) health education
points for number of lung lesions =
= 6.05 * ((number of lesions) - 1)
points for age =
= 1.111 * (age)
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0
male
24.2
health education
no
22
yes
0
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 176.45
value of X =
= (0.0367 * (score)) - 3.933
risk of unsuccessful treatment =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.76.
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