Description

Lunevicius and Nzenwa reported a model for predicting a bile leak after a subtotal cholecystectomy. The authors are from Aintree Hospital and University of Liverpool in the UK.


Patient selection: subtotal cholecystectomy

 

Parameters:

(1) acute cholecystitis

(2) Liverpool classification for variant of subtotal cholecystectomy

(3) removal of hepatic wall

(4) subtotal cholecystectomy by type of completion

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

acute cholecystitis

no

0

 

yes

1.695

variant of subtotal cholecystectomy

STC-2A

1.148

 

STC-1A, STC-1B, STC-1C, STC-2B, STC-3, STC-4

0

removal of hepatic wall

no

0.3339

 

yes

0

type of completion

open tract

1.956

 

closed tract

0

 

value of X =

= SUM(points for the parameters) - 3.196

 

probability of bile leak =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.


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