Lunevicius and Nzenwa reported a model for predicting a bile leak after a subtotal cholecystectomy. The authors are from Aintree Hospital and University of Liverpool in the UK.
Patient selection: subtotal cholecystectomy
Parameters:
(1) acute cholecystitis
(2) Liverpool classification for variant of subtotal cholecystectomy
(3) removal of hepatic wall
(4) subtotal cholecystectomy by type of completion
Parameter
Finding
Points
acute cholecystitis
no
0
yes
1.695
variant of subtotal cholecystectomy
STC-2A
1.148
STC-1A, STC-1B, STC-1C, STC-2B, STC-3, STC-4
0
removal of hepatic wall
no
0.3339
yes
0
type of completion
open tract
1.956
closed tract
0
value of X =
= SUM(points for the parameters) - 3.196
probability of bile leak =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82.
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