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Model of Livingston et al for Predicting Complications Following Gastric Bypass Surgery

Description

Livingston et al developed a model for predicting complications following gastric bypass surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive or an alternative management. The authors are from VAMC Greater Los Angeles Health Care System and the UCLA Center for Human Nutrition.


 

Patient selection: adult undergoing gastric bypass surgery

 

Outcome: complication (anastomotic leak, sepsis, pulmonary embolism, upper GI bleed, respiratory failure, renal failure, bowel obstruction, etc)

 

Parameters:

(1) gender

(2) body weight in pounds

(3) age of the patient in years

 

Gender

Points

female

0

male

1

 

X =

= (0.572 * (point for gender)) + (0.00176 * (body weight)) – 3.558

 

probability of a complication =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Mortality was 3.5% if the patient was >= 55 years of age vs 1.1% for < 55 years (3-fold higher).

 


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