Liu et al reported a nomogram for predicting severe acute pancreatitis in a Chinese patient with hypertriglyceridemia. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University Beijing, City of Hope National Medical Center, and South China University of Technology.
Patient selection: Chinese patient with hypertriglyceridemia
Parameters:
(1) age of the patient in years, from 15 to 70
(2) serum apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) concentration in g/L, from 0.2 to 2.2
(3) pleural effusion
points for age =
= (0.445 * (age)) - 6.682
points for ApoA1 =
= 110 - (50 * (ApoA1))
Pleural Effusion
Points
no
0
yes
32.4
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 156.9
value of X =
= (0.1042 * (score)) - 10.42
probability of severe acute pancreatitis =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Other factors associated with severe pancreatitis:
(1) CRP >= 190 mg/L
(2) APACHE II score >= 8
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.93.
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