Liu et al reported a model for predicting postoperative infection following surgery to correct mandibular osteonecrosis. The authors are from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Panhihua Central Hospital and Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital in China.
Patient: status post surgery to correct mandibular osteonecrosis associated with radiation therapy
Parameters:
(1) radiation dose in Grays
(2) skin fistula
(3) use of an implant
(4) unilateral vs bilateral
Parameter
Finding
Points
radiation dose
< 80 Gy
0
>= 80 Gy
54.1
skin fistula
no
0
yes
58.1
use of an implant
no
0
yes
53.5
unilateral vs bilateral
unilateral
0
bilateral
100
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 265.7
value of X =
= (0.01351 * (score)) - 2.3
probability of postoperative infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.71.
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