Lin et al reported a model for predicting mortality in a patient with acute mesenteric infarction prior to surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from E-Da Hospital and I-Shou University in Taiwan.
Patient selection: prior to surgery for acute mesenteric infarction
Outcome: 30-day mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) severe liver disease
(3) hemodialysis (indicating renal failure)
(4) congestive heart failure
(5) peptic ulcer disease
(6) cerebrovascular disease
(7) diabetes
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
<= 62 years
0
> 62 years
3
severe liver disease
no
0
yes
4
hemodialysis
no
0
yes
2
congestive heart failure
no
0
yes
1
peptic ulcer disease
no
0
yes
1
cerebrovascular disease
no
0
yes
1
diabetes
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 13
Total Score
Risk Category
30-Day Mortality Rate
0
very low
4%
1 to 3
low
13%
4 to 6
medium
25%
7 to 13
high
34%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.68-0.70.
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